This method tries to clarify what could happen rather than answering the question: “What will happen?” Within the spectrum of alternative scenarios with a defined time horizon, the goal is to analyse, match and assess questions from a range of thematic areas to identify risks and opportunities:
- How will the alternative scenarios impact each stage of value creation?
- How will existing technologies change? Which new technologies are to be expected?
- What changes does this imply for current and new products?
- Which current projects should be boosted, and which should be reviewed to assess whether resources are better allocated elsewhere?
- Which investments are required, for which purposes and when?
- What skills and know-how will employees need, and when?
At the end of 3-4 pragmatic workshops you should have:
- Qualitative scenarios describing alternative visions of your business environment,
- Concrete product and technology paths available to the company, aligned with the objectives derived from the scenarios and
- The investments required to implement the roadmap as well as additional portfolio analyses assessed from a timing and risk perspective.
Extensive project experience has shown that even by itself, addressing the future in such a way is an important element of success. An interdisciplinary project team guarantees a broad experience and knowledge base while also aligning the organisation for joint action.
The approach is completed by regularly reviewing the assumptions and conclusions or doing so in response to specific events. Who could anticipate the effects of 9/11 on the entire aviation sector?